Iran's IRGC Navy declared the Strait of Hormuz closed "until further notice" early Sunday, July 12, 2026, after IRGC forces struck the Cyprus-flagged container ship M/V GFS Galaxy for allegedly disabling its tracking system and deviating from an approved route. The vessel suffered a fire and significant engine room damage; one crew member is reported missing, with the rest evacuated by lifeboat per UKMTO. US Central Command launched its third round of strikes against Iran this week in response, stating Iran had been given another opportunity to honor the existing ceasefire Memorandum of Understanding and failed again. The IRGC warned that any retaliation framed around this incident would draw a "severe response." The UAE's crisis management authority separately reported air defenses responding to a missile threat Saturday evening. This closure follows a pattern of repeated Hormuz shutdowns since the war's February start; the strait normally carries roughly 25% of world seaborne oil trade and 20% of global LNG trade.

The June 17 US-Iran ceasefire framework collapsed this week after a third round of US strikes hit ~140 Iranian military targets on July 11. Iran responded by formally declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed "until further notice" — its first blanket closure declaration of the conflict — following an IRGC strike on the Cyprus-flagged container ship GFS Galaxy. Retaliatory Iranian strikes widened to Jordan, Qatar, and Bahrain; Qatar's Transport Ministry issued the first blanket maritime suspension by a Gulf government since the war began. Washington disputes the closure: JMIC says the southern Omani-coast route remains open and has been expanded to two-way traffic, and President Trump said Sunday the Strait "remains open to commercial shipping." Markets are pricing the Iranian version, not the American one. Verified metrics: - Tanker transits: Kpler's matched pair shows a fall from a 33/day weekly average to 13 on Wednesday; Windward's July 11 count shows just 21 total transits, with the southern corridor reduced to 1 of 12 outbound attempts and zero inbound. - War-risk insurance: Lloyd's Market Association (Neil Roberts, via Xinhua, July 10) confirms hull war-risk premiums near 5% of vessel value, up from ~2% a week earlier — pre-crisis baseline comparisons vary too widely across sources to cite reliably. - Oil: Brent surged 4.2% to $79.22/bbl Monday from a prior close of $76.01, reversing part of the relief the June MoU had delivered. - Supply chain: QatarEnergy's Ras Laffan LNG force majeure is compounding with Qatar's fresh navigation suspension; Jebel Ali is absorbing diverted vessel congestion; Red Sea/Houthi activity forecloses Suez as an overflow route, pushing carriers to the Cape of Good Hope (+10-14 days). Inference: the closure/open dispute is the thing to watch over the next 72 hours — Oman-Iran technical talks and Qatari mediation continue in parallel with Iranian warnings against unapproved routing. Not yet resolved either toward a negotiated routing regime or an extended closure. Sourcing: Kpler, Windward, Veson Nautical, MarineTraffic, Lloyd's Market Association/Xinhua, Investing.com/Reuters, TradingEconomics, CNN, Al Jazeera, The National, JMIC/UKMTO. All figures current as of July 13, 2026, subject to revision.

Houthis declare total naval blockade at Bab el-Mandab. All Israel-linked vessels designated military targets following Israeli strikes on Karun Mahshahr and Iranian retaliation on Ramat David Air Base and Haifa. Tesla, Volvo and Shell reporting supply disruption.