Asian LNG Demand Set to Decline 3 to 10 Percent in 2026, Second Consecutive Annual Drop as Prices Hit $26 Per MMBtu and China Delays Discretionary Stocking

Demand for liquefied natural gas in Asia is set to decline this year by between 3 and 10 percent on higher prices, according to analysts cited by Reuters and reported by OilPrice.com on September 17. This would be the second annual decline in Asian LNG demand, with the northeastern parts of the continent accounting for most of it. LNG prices surged to $26 per million British thermal units in the week ending September 11, per Reuters, up from $10.40 per MMBtu in the last week of February before the first US and Israeli strikes on Iran. Rystad Energy analyst Lu Ming Pang said countries in Northeast Asia were able to bring down their LNG demand through coal and nuclear availability, depending on the country's power mix. Asian imports of liquefied natural gas are set to drop to 20.09 million tons in September, making it the weakest September for LNG imports since 2018, based on data from Kpler. Last year, the September total stood at 22.27 million tons. The biggest decline in LNG imports is coming from China, the world's largest LNG importer, which is highly sensitive to price fluctuations. Kpler analyst Nelson Xiong said that under current high prices, discretionary stocking by Chinese buyers is going to be delayed until late December or Q1 2027 onwards. The sustained price spike and resulting demand destruction mark a structural shift in Asian LNG markets driven by the prolonged disruption to Gulf supply. QatarEnergy declared force majeure on exports following Iranian strikes on its Ras Laffan gas hub, removing a major source of supply at a time when alternative LNG cargoes are already competing for limited tanker capacity due to the Hormuz closure. Northeast Asian buyers—China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan—have responded by substituting coal and nuclear generation where possible and deferring discretionary inventory builds until prices moderate. Wood Mackenzie forecasts Asia Pacific demand at 257 million tons in 2026, down from 268 million tons in 2025 and a peak