All signals
Global Diesel Shortage Expected to Last Into 2027 as US Inventories Hit Lowest Level Since 1982 at 107.9 Million Barrels, Retail Prices Surpass Six Dollars per Gallon for First Time
Sources: Reuters (global diesel shortage analysis, September 21, 2026; US diesel inventory data citing US Energy Information Administration); BNN Bloomberg (global diesel shortage analysis, September 21, 2026); Bloomberg (AAA retail diesel price data showing $6.51/gallon, September 21, 2026); RTE (diesel shortage and inventory analysis, September 21, 2026); US Energy Information Administration (September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook; distillate inventory forecast); Insights Global (European ARA storage data, July 2026). Cross-checked across multiple outlets carrying the same Reuters analysis.
A global diesel shortage fueled by the Iran and Ukraine wars is unlikely to ease before 2027, according to storage market indicators and industry analysis published September 21, as total US diesel inventories declined to 107.9 million barrels by September 11, the lowest for this time of year since records began in 1982, according to the US Energy Information Administration as cited by Reuters, BNN Bloomberg, and RTE. The EIA forecast that inventories of distillate fuel oil, often sold as diesel, in the United States will fall below 100 million barrels in September and remain below the five-year low through the end of 2026 and most of 2027, according to the agency's September Short-Term Energy Outlook. The wars have severely disrupted diesel supplies, stranding millions of barrels per day in the Middle East and Russia, draining inventories to historic lows and sending prices to record highs, according to analysis by BNN Bloomberg. In the United States, retail diesel prices topped six dollars per gallon this month for the first time, with Bloomberg reporting on September 21 that AAA data showed prices reaching $6.51 per gallon, squeezing farmers and truckers. European diesel inventories are also critically low, with stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp storage, refining, and trading hub sitting 16 percent below the five-year average in July according to the latest data available from Insights Global, while in Singapore total distillate inventory levels averaged about 8.2 million barrels over the past few weeks, similar to pre-Iran war levels but below the 2025 average of 9.6 million barrels. The shortage has been a drag on economic activity globally, as diesel fuels agriculture, manufacturing, and heavy transportation. The rapid draw of diesel from US storage indicates how tightly supplied the market has been in recent months, and the rising availability of tanks for lease underscores how long the tightness is expected to persist, according to industry analysis