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IEA Cuts 2026 Global Oil Demand Growth Forecast, Now Expects 2.5 Million Barrel Per Day Annual Decline as Hormuz Disruptions Push Gulf Supply Recovery Into 2027
Sources: IEA Oil Market Report September 2026, Oil & Gas Journal, Xinhua, energynews.pro, TradeArabia via IndexBox. The IEA report was published September 11, 2026. Figures verified across multiple outlets citing the official IEA OMR. The US-Iran conflict that began February 28, 2026, and subsequent Strait of Hormuz disruptions are documented in Congressional Research Service reports (Congress.gov R45281), Council on Foreign Relations Global Conflict Tracker, Britannica, and specialized industry monitors.
The International Energy Agency sharply downgraded its 2026 global oil demand outlook in its September Oil Market Report published Friday September 11, now forecasting global demand will decline by 2.5 million barrels per day year-on-year in 2026, a downward revision of 940,000 barrels per day from the 1.6 million barrel per day decline projected in August. The agency attributed the steeper contraction to the continuing US-Iran diplomatic impasse delaying normalization of oil flows and pushing full recovery in Middle East supplies into 2027, according to the report and coverage from Oil & Gas Journal, Xinhua, and energynews.pro. Global oil demand is now forecast at 102.44 million barrels per day in 2026, down from an estimated 105.16 million barrels per day in 2025. Global oil supply is now projected to average 100.7 million barrels per day in 2026, down 5.7 million barrels per day year-on-year and 1.3 million barrels per day below the prior month's forecast. Global oil production fell 1.6 million barrels per day month-on-month in August to 100.1 million barrels per day, with more than 10 million barrels per day of Gulf output remaining shut in amid heightened security risks. Global observed oil inventories plunged by a further 95 million barrels in August, bringing cumulative draws since February to 507 million barrels, or an average of 2.8 million barrels per day. Oil-on-water volumes declined by 65 million barrels as tanker traffic out of the Middle East came under renewed attacks. The IEA said oil demand will not return to its prewar February level of about 106 million barrels per day until late 2027, describing 2026-27 as essentially a lost period for oil demand growth. Losses in consumption will be concentrated in middle distillates and petrochemical feedstocks, particularly in Asia, with elevated fuel prices putting further downward pressure on oil use. Refinery throughput reached 81.4 million barrels per day in August, up 960,000 barrels per day from July