Iran-Oman Hormuz Transit Talks "Near Completion" but Details Remain Disputed; Circular Route Proposed, Final Terms Unclear

## What Happened Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Monday that negotiations with Oman over Strait of Hormuz transit arrangements are entering "final stages" and moving toward completion. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei confirmed talks have been underway "for the past seven to eight days" and that "some progress has been achieved," though he emphasized the discussions focus on a new route and have "no link to the Strait of Hormuz being opened or closed. That is a separate discussion." According to Yahoo and WION, the proposed arrangement involves Iran and Oman negotiating a joint temporary shipping corridor using a circular route: ships would enter through Iranian territorial waters and exit through Omani waters. However, last month Iran publicly rejected an Oman proposal for a "Malacca Model" of 50/50 shared transit routes and joint regional management, saying it failed to meet Iran's security interests. An IRGC-affiliated source and Baghaei rejected reports that Iran had accepted a compromise on the circular route. ## Why It Matters The Hormuz talks are the only verified diplomatic process underway—unlike Trump's claimed US-Iran negotiations, which Tehran denies. But the contradictory statements suggest both sides are jockeying for leverage rather than finalizing terms. Iran wants to control the strait unilaterally while appearing open to dialogue; Oman seeks a framework that reassures global shipping without ceding sovereignty. The "circular route" concept is a face-saving compromise that leaves unresolved whether US and Israeli vessels will be allowed through, whether fees will be imposed, and what enforcement mechanisms will govern violations. Markets are pricing a reopening that hasn't happened and may not resemble the pre-war status quo. If the Iran-Oman deal collapses or excludes Western shipping, oil could spike back above $100 within days.