Oil Tanker Freight Rates Hit Record Highs as VLCC Earnings Reach $800,000 per Day on Middle East-China Route, Kpler Forecasts Rates Above $100,000 Through 2027

Global tanker freight rates surged to record levels in the week ending September 10, with earnings for very large crude carriers on the benchmark Middle East-to-China route reaching nearly $800,000 per day and lump-sum charter fees for the US Gulf-to-Asia run hitting $29.5 million per voyage, according to Bloomberg, Reuters, and Baltic Exchange data published September 10-11. The shipping rate for VLCCs loading oil from the Gulf of Oman for shipment to China reached approximately 450 on a Worldscale basis, equaling roughly $11.50 per barrel before factoring in war-risk surcharges or delay fees, according to Baltic Exchange data cited by Reuters and BOE Report. Vortexa analyst Ioannis Papadimitriou said renewed attacks between the US Navy and Iran continue to push freight rates around the Gulf to new highs, with the higher risk of operating in and around the Middle East Gulf driving rates higher in fear of Iranian retaliation, which naturally thins the available tankers in the region. Shipbroker Fearnleys reported an extremely limited number of available VLCC positions in its weekly report for the period ending September 9. Freight analysis from data intelligence firm Kpler published September 10 suggests daily earnings for VLCCs will stay above $100,000 per day into 2027, more than double historic levels that rarely went above $45,000, according to Bloomberg and gCaptain. Two-year leasing rates for VLCCs could rise by 20 to 30 percent, according to a Morgan Stanley note published September 10. The rate surge reflects growing strain in oil markets as traders, shipowners, producers, and buyers grapple with a drawn-out conflict in the Persian Gulf and increasingly complex workarounds, with attacks around Hormuz and the Red Sea lengthening voyages and constraining shipping. The escalation follows Iran's Wednesday claim to have attacked ten ships near the Strait of Hormuz after the US sank five Iranian oil tankers, and the Houthis' Friday capture of Perim Island in the