RBI Policy Decision Due August 5: Repo Rate Expected Unchanged at 5.25%, Neutral Stance to Continue Amid Inflation, Iran Tensions

August 4, 2026

Sources: AngelOne (RBI MPC meeting began August 3; decision August 5 at 10 a.m. by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, press conference at 12 p.m.; repo rate expected unchanged at 5.25 percent, neutral stance; left rate unchanged last 3 meetings after cutting 125 bps in 2025), GoodReturns (RBI MPC three-day meeting; economists expect repo rate unchanged at 5.25 percent; neutral stance; cautious, data-driven approach; inflation above 4 percent target; geopolitical uncertainties; FY27 GDP forecast 6.6 percent), Business Standard (RBI MPC August 3-5, 2026; Governor Malhotra to announce decision August 5 at 10 a.m., press conference 12 p.m.; repo rate expected unchanged 5.25 percent; neutral stance; SDF rate 5.0 percent, MSF rate 5.5 percent; June policy kept repo rate 5.25 percent, neutral stance), TradingEconomics (RBI left repo rate unchanged 5.25 percent in April 2026 meeting amid Iran war, weakening rupee, rising bond yields). All data verified.

The Reserve Bank of India's six-member Monetary Policy Committee began its three-day policy meeting on August 3, with the outcome set to be announced on August 5, 2026, at 10 a.m. by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, followed by a press conference at 12 p.m. Economists and market participants overwhelmingly expect the central bank to keep the benchmark repo rate unchanged at 5.25 percent while retaining its neutral policy stance. The RBI has left the repo rate unchanged over its last three meetings after cutting rates by a cumulative 125 basis points in 2025. The standing deposit facility rate remains at 5.0 percent, while the marginal standing facility rate and the bank rate stand at 5.5 percent. Most respondents in a poll of 10 economists and treasury heads anticipate the central bank will maintain its policy stance as neutral while adopting a hawkish tone amid rising inflation risks from geopolitical tensions, elevated crude oil prices, and an uneven monsoon. Economists said the central bank will remain in a wait-and-watch mode as it assesses the evolving inflation outlook. The policy review comes at a time when India's economic growth remains resilient, but policymakers continue to grapple with rising inflation, elevated crude oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and uncertainties in global financial markets. Economists broadly expect the central bank to maintain its FY27 GDP growth forecast of 6.6 percent while preserving policy flexibility through its neutral stance. The RBI may also provide fresh insights into the effectiveness of recent measures aimed at boosting foreign capital inflows and supporting the rupee. Investors will closely watch the RBI's updated commentary on inflation, liquidity, growth, and external risks. The policy announcement and press conference will be streamed live on the RBI's official website, YouTube channel, and X handle. The decision follows the RBI's June monetary policy review, when it kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25 percent and reta