SpaceX Reports First Public Earnings Today: Wall Street Eyes Starlink Margins, AI Spending, and $116B Lock-Up Expiration

SpaceX reports Q2 2026 results after market close on August 4, its first earnings release since listing on the Nasdaq in June, with an earnings call at 4:30 p.m. ET. The report comes just two trading days before the first major lock-up expiration on August 6, when up to 911.5 million shares—representing 20% of restricted holdings totaling roughly $116 billion—become eligible for sale, making it the largest insider lock-up expiration in financial history. SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share on June 11, 2026, raising $85.7 billion in the largest initial public offering ever. The stock reached $225.64 on June 16 but has fallen more than 45% since then, trading around $108.37 as of July 31. Wall Street consensus expects Q2 revenue of $1.81 billion and EPS of $0.34, though some forecasts reach $6.88 billion depending on segment classification. SpaceX posted a net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025 and a further $4.28 billion loss in Q1 2026 on $4.69 billion in revenue. Investors will focus on four key areas: Starlink profitability and subscriber growth (10.3 million subscribers as of March 31, up 105% year-over-year), AI capital expenditures and expected returns, launch cadence and Starship progress, and management's outlook for the remainder of 2026. The company currently trades at roughly 49 times expected revenue. Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating and $300 target price, primarily betting on long-term enterprise AI growth rather than core launch services. Founder Elon Musk's controlling stake and key executive shares remain restricted under a full 1-year lock-up until June 12, 2027.