OPEC+ Keeps November Oil Output Targets Unchanged for Second Consecutive Month Amid Hormuz Export Constraints

OPEC+ kept its oil production targets unchanged for November on October 4, 2026, extending the pause it started in October after six months of gradual increases, according to The National and multiple outlets. The seven-country voluntary-cuts group comprising Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and non-OPEC member Oman held levels steady for a second month as most members pump below quotas. The decision follows the group's September production increase, which completed the phased reversal of 1.65 million barrels per day in voluntary supply cuts first introduced in 2023.

However, actual output remains significantly below official targets for several members, as the ongoing Iran war continues to restrict crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz and limit OPEC+'s ability to influence physical supply and prices, according to analysts cited by The National and Egypt Oil & Gas. Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy told multiple outlets that OPEC+ currently has very limited power over the physical oil market, noting the group can change production targets on paper but cannot guarantee that those barrels will be produced or actually reach the market. The group is keeping a further two million barrels per day of cuts, agreed in 2022, in place until the end of the year and is reviewing members' production capacity to set quotas for 2027.

The sustained disconnect between OPEC+ paper quotas and physical supply means the group's policy announcements have minimal near-term influence on actual oil flows or prices while Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist. The next policy inflection depends on OPEC+'s 2027 capacity review and baseline-setting process, expected later in 2026, rather than monthly output adjustments.

Sources

The National (UAE), "Opec+ keeps oil output targets unchanged for November," October 4, 2026, thenationalnews.com CNBC, "OPEC+ agrees to keep November oil output targets steady," October 4, 2026, cnbc.com TASS, "OPEC+ seven keep November oil production plan unchanged," October 4, 2026, tass.com U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Oman is the largest non-OPEC oil producer in the Middle East," eia.gov Egypt Oil & Gas, "OPEC+ Keeps October Oil Output Policy Unchanged as Iran War Limits Supply," September 6, 2026, egyptoil-gas.com